NAIJWEB.NG POLLS: NIGERIA ELECTION 2019 PRESIDENTIAL POLL TRACKER (RESULTS FOR MAY 2016)
The NAIJWEB.NG POLLS which is a public opinion survey-based research conducted by NAIJWEB AMC tracks Nigeria’s Presidential race on a monthly basis with the aim of providing an excellent, scientific way to understand the dynamics of Nigeria’s election campaign, and the impact of foreseen and unforeseen events in the weeks and months ahead. With about eight months till voting begins, data tracked by NAIJweb.ng Poll for the month of March shows Atiku Abubakar ahead of the Presidential race with a statistically significant lead at 79%, followed by President Buhari with 15%.
The nationwide online survey of 2,149 likely Nigeria voters, taken February, 2019 underscores how formidable an opponent the 72-year-old statesman has become against the National Democratic Congress’ most established figure.
Buhari Versus Atiku – Who Will Win 2019 Presidential Election?
Nigeria will go to polls next year to pick a new president. Currently, President Muhammadu Buhari and former vice president Atiku Abubakar are the frontrunners in the 2019 race for the presidency. Atiku is a familiar foe for the ruling All Progressives Congress has been a member until last December when he decamped and returned to Peoples Democratic Party. It is Atiku’s fourth run for the presidency after failed attempts in 2007, 2011 and 2015…
And We NAJweb AMC LLC Just Conducted Online POLL and The Result Will Shock The Entire Nigerians And The World.
Before Then Know Us More
On that note, the Febuary Presidential elections is likely to be decided based on these key issues.
The upsurge of non-partisan middle class political activism in Nigeria also stands to play a major role in informing and educating the electorates. By exercising their right to a fair trial, the non-partisan middle class political activists are gradually helping shape the thoughts of Nigerian voters on governance issues, and this we predict will have an influence on the voting pattern of Nigerians in general depending on how rigorous their campaigns are and how convincing they are perceived as non-partisan. Their strong participation in this year’s election might go a long way to enlighten voters to weigh issues before they cast their votes.
In conclusion, Nigerians have definite opinions about the personal and presidential qualities of President Mahama and Akufo-Addo, but there still may be some opportunity for the candidates to change those perceptions during the remaining months of their campaigns.
With public opinion presidential pre-election polling being quite unused in Nigeria, and the high tendency of Nigeria’s hyper-personalized politics to attribute this poll to bias, we want to explain further what NAIJWEB.NG Poll’s presidential polling seeks to achieve and how it works:
1. NAIJWEB.NG Poll does not measure the outcome of Nigeria’s Febuary election. But instead, we measure (scientifically) who is ahead during election campaigning at a given point in time. NAIJWEB.NG Poll therefore does not answer the question “Who will win?” but the question “Who was ahead when we last looked?” To know who is ahead helps both politicians in office and out of office in their planning. This poll is therefore not meant to undermine any political party, but to help provide a solid read to candidates and also enable political parties to not be trapped in a vacuum, in which they are absent-minded of what the public feels.
2. Much will happen between today and Febuary 2019 which could affect subsequent results in this presidential polling. Most political parties in Nigeria are yet to begin active and rigorous campaigning which may give momentum to, or suck oxygen from a given candidate. A candidate may also drop or increase depending on their favourability ratings among floating voters, or some candidates may throw their support behind another candidate, this together with other foreseen and unforeseen instances might render the NAIJWEB.NG Poll very unpredictable.
The NAIJWEB.NG Poll Monthly Election Tracking for the month of March was conducted online among a national sample of 2,149 adults aged 18 and over. These findings by NAIJWEB.NG Poll was conducted on October, 2018 through to January, 2019. Respondents were reached through an opt-in internet survey (Opt-in internet surveys are generally conducted by first recruiting individuals by having them click on a web-based advertisement or soliciting their participation).
After the survey was completed, the raw data was processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age distribution. The raw data was weighted for age using the 2017 Population and Housing Census to reflect the demographic composition of Nigeria.Since the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, the initial thought is that, no estimates for margin of sampling error can be calculated. Also, survey may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. In addition to this, question wording in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Additional Information on Methodology
Many internet-panels consist of self-selected respondents and hence cover a relatively small part of the population. Estimates based on Internet polling therefore may suffer from non-coverage and self-selection bias.
Nevertheless, NAIJWEB AMC LLC is aware of the claims about online polling and those who complete online surveys, these claims include the following:
• Not everyone has internet access;
• Online polls are created through an opt‐in process, rather than through a random‐digit dial telephone call;
• Less is known about the profiles of individuals who complete online surveys versus those who do not, or about the likelihood of an online person to complete an online survey or to participate in a survey panel.
Therefore, the probability of being included in any given online survey sample is unknown, very difficult to ascertain, or simply zero (non‐internet users). Further, the nature of use of the internet is not uniform within the population, so this limits one’s ability to calculate the likelihood of reaching a person through an online poll. In short, without this knowledge, a margin of error cannot be calculated.
However, even if all voters in Nigeria had made up their minds already and would truthfully tell a pollster their preferences by participating in a probability-based survey, it is obviously just not possible to interview that many Nigerians. What pollsters often do in a probability-based survey is to interview a smaller number of randomly-selected city residents and use standard statistical methods to project their answers to the rest of the population.
On that note, NAIJWEB AMC LLC also made an attempt to conduct this poll in a scientific way to assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects which might yield similar results to probability sampling. This is due to the fact that it is very important for us as researchers to provide a measure of confidence along with our data, regardless of the method of data collection. As such, we calculated a margin of error +/- 4 which considers the methodology valid and has a confidence level 95% to which that projection may be made.
The Margin of Error is a measurement of how confident we can be that our survey of the opinions of 2,149 people actually reflects the opinions of the entire Nigerian population.
When analysing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
About NAIJWEB.NG Poll
The NAIJWEB.NG Poll is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of African and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
About NAIJWEB AMC LLC
NAIJWEB.NG AMC LLC is Africa’s leading management consulting firm. At NAIJWEB AMC, we utilize unique strategic planning methods to advise leading businesses, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profits. And we achieve this by taking pragmatic steps which are based on the effectiveness of our recommendation. We have expertise in partnering with our clients to help them improve their performance and achieve their strategic planning goals and objectives. The strength of our firm is rooted in our belief that success is derived from a collaborative process, a smart action plan, a focused approach and an unwavering commitment to deliver results. We are very passionate about attaining the best pragmatic and holistic results for our clients.
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